What Happened?
Shares of aerospace and defense company Mercury Systems (NASDAQ:MRCY) jumped 3.8% in the afternoon session after an unexpected drop in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for August, signaled easing inflation and raised expectations for a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the PPI, which measures wholesale prices, edged down 0.1% last month, contrary to analyst expectations for a 0.3% rise. This data gives the Federal Reserve more flexibility to consider lowering interest rates to stimulate the economy. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a quarter-point rate cut at the next Fed meeting has surged to 90%. Lower interest rates typically benefit the industrial sector by reducing borrowing costs for new projects and expansion, potentially leading to increased economic activity and demand for industrial goods.
After the initial pop the shares cooled down to $71.43, up 4% from previous close.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
Mercury Systems’s shares are not very volatile and have only had 9 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful, although it might not be something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 22 days ago when the stock dropped 4.5% on the news that investors took some profits off the table as markets awaited signals on future monetary policy from the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole symposium later in the week. The downturn in the market was largely attributed to a significant sell-off in megacap tech and chipmaker shares. Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Broadcom all saw notable drops, dragging down the VanEck Semiconductor ETF. Other major tech-related companies like Tesla, Meta Platforms, and Netflix were also under pressure. A key reason for this trend is that much of the recent market gains have been concentrated in the "AI trade," which includes these large technology and semiconductor companies. So this could also mean that some investors are locking in some gains ahead of more definitive feedback from the Fed.
Mercury Systems is up 68.8% since the beginning of the year, and at $71.43 per share, has set a new 52-week high. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Mercury Systems’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $1,065.
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